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20120928
20121006
Search Results 0 to 1 of about 2 (some duplicates have been removed)
the numbers some. for example you have economic crises and foreign policy crises. if you play poker, you're used to playing your hand well. you catch a lucky card or you play bad and catch the card of your life. you used to think about improbability. you are calmer when you watch the he ebb and flow of polls an political news. >> you talk about weather forecasting has improved over the years, and the glitch that sort of caused the ibm computer to beat gary in the 1997 chess game. what are the worst at predicting? what do we get wrong more than anything else? >> in general the field of economic prediction is a pretty bad example. for example, in december of 2007, most people in the "wall street journal's" forecasting panel, 45 distinguished economists said we would not go into a recession over the next year. in fact, it turned out we were already in recession by december 2007. it was later revealed through the data. when we're in a recession we don't know it half the time and can't predict the macro economy more than six months in advance. you had all kinds of problems with people expecti
Search Results 0 to 1 of about 2 (some duplicates have been removed)